原创力文档use of a generalized additive model to investigate key abiotic factors affecting microcystin cellular quotas in heavy bloom areas of lake taihu使用广义相加模型研究主要非生物因素影响国内外细胞配额在沉重的布鲁姆地区太湖.pdfVIP
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use of a generalized additive model to investigate key abiotic factors affecting microcystin cellular quotas in heavy bloom areas of lake taihu使用广义相加模型研究主要非生物因素影响国内外细胞配额在沉重的布鲁姆地区太湖
Use of a Generalized Additive Model to Investigate Key
Abiotic Factors Affecting Microcystin Cellular Quotas in
Heavy Bloom Areas of Lake Taihu
1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
Min Tao , Ping Xie *, Jun Chen , Boqiang Qin , Dawen Zhang , Yuan Niu , Meng Zhang , Qing Wang ,
Laiyan Wu1
1 Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China, 2 Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
Abstract
Lake Taihu is the third largest freshwater lake in China and is suffering from serious cyanobacterial blooms with the
associated drinking water contamination by microcystin (MC) for millions of citizens. So far, most studies on MCs have been
limited to two small bays, while systematic research on the whole lake is lacking. To explain the variations in MC
concentrations during cyanobacterial bloom, a large-scale survey at 30 sites across the lake was conducted monthly in 2008.
The health risks of MC exposure were high, especially in the northern area. Both Microcystis abundance and MC cellular
quotas presented positive correlations with MC concentration in the bloom seasons, suggesting that the toxic risks during
Microcystis proliferations were affected by variations in both Microcystis density and MC production per Microcystis cell. Use
of a powerful predictive modeling tool named generalized additive model (GAM) helped visualize significant effects of
abiotic factors related to carbon fixation and proliferation of Microcystis (conductivity, dissolved inorganic ca
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