我国重要农产品价格调控和其政策效果.pdfVIP

MACROECONOMY宏观经济 我国重要农产品价格波动、价格调控 及其政策效果* Price Fluctuation, Price Regulation and the Policy Effects of China ’s Important Agricultural Products 涂圣伟 蓝海涛 内容提要 采用H-P 滤波法对粮食、生猪、棉花等价格波动特征进行周期性识别，系统评价了政府储备吞吐、进 出口等价格调控政策效果。 研究发现，我国重要农产品价格已进入短周期宽幅波动阶段，今后一个时期要围绕 重点品种，完善调控手段体系，明确调控触发机制，探索实施定量收储与差价直补相结合的粮价调控政策，强 化棉油糖等外向型农产品价格调控政策，完善生猪价格调控预案，建立间接调控为主的蔬菜价格调控机制，努 力保持重要农产品价格合理波动。 关键词 重要农产品 价格改革 宏观调控 作者单位 国家发展和改革委员会产业经济与技术经济研究所 北京 100038 Tu Shengwei Lan Haitao Abstract: We employ HP -filter to recognize the cyclical fluctuation of the price of grain, pig and cotton, and systematically evaluate the efficiency of government reserves and the import and export policy. The results show that the price fluctuation of important agricultural products has entered into short periodic and wide range. In the coming future, we should modify the regulation methods system according to the important agricultural breeds, clarify the triggering mechanism of regulation, explore to implement the price regulation policy of grain based on the coordination between reserve quota and direct subsidy , strengthen the price regulation policy of cotton, oil and sugar, improve the price regulation plan of pig, establish the price regulatory mechanism of vegetables, and strive to maintain the fluctuation of price of important agricultural products in a reasonable range. Key words: important agricultural products, price reform, macroeconomic control 进入 世纪以来， 我国农业发展面临的内外部形势发生了重要深 21 刻变化。 生猪、棉花、油料、食糖等重要农产品价格波动加剧，对农业生 产、居民消费和国民经济运行带来较大负面影响，受到社会各界广泛关 注。 [1]加快完善重要农产品价格调控机制，成为当前和今后一个时期我 国加强宏观调控目标和政策手段机制化建设的重要问题之一，对促进国 民经济平稳运行和社会和谐稳定具有重大现实意义。 * 该标题为《 改革》编辑部改定标题，作者原标题为《 我国重要农产品价格调控政