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the system dynamics of u.s. automobile fuel economy美国汽车燃料经济的系统动力学
Sustainability 2012, 4, 1013-1042; doi:10.3390/su4051013
OPEN ACCESS
sustainability
ISSN 2071-1050
/journal/sustainability
Article
The System Dynamics of U.S. Automobile Fuel Economy
Todd K. BenDor
Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
New East Building, Campus Box #3140, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3140, USA;
E-Mail: bendor@; Tel.: +1-919-962-4760; Fax: +1-919-962-5206
Received: 2 April 2012; in revised form: 24 April 2012 / Accepted: 9 May 2012 /
Published: 18 May 2012
Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics of U.S. automobile gasoline consumption
since 1975. Using background literature on the history of domestic fuel economy and
energy policy, I establish a conceptual model that explains historical trends in adoption of
increased fuel economy. I then create a system dynamics simulation model to understand
the relationship between increased fuel economy standards and potential changes to gas tax
policies. The model suggests that when increases in mandated fuel economy are not
conducted in an environment with rising fuel costs, fuel economy improvements may be
directly counteracted by shifting tastes of consumers towards larger automobiles with
lower fuel economy.
Keywords: transportation; system dynamics modeling; transportation policy;
fuel economy; fuel economy; environmental policy; energy security; climate change;
mobile source; CA
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