长江下游地区降水50—80d低频分量的次季节预测研究.PDF

1 doi:10.11676/qxxb2016.046 气象学报 2 3 4 长江下游地区降水50－80d 低频分量的次季节预测研究 5 6 杨秋明 7 YANG Qiuming 8 9 江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京, 210009 10 Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210009, China 11 2015-10-27 收稿，2016-04-27 改回. 12 13 杨秋明.2016.长江下游地区降水50－80d 低频分量的次季节预测研究.气象学报,74(待刊) 14 Yang Qiuming. 2016. Study on the subseasonal forecast for the low frequency rainfall over the 15 lower reaches of Yangtze river valley based on the 50－80-day oscillation. Acta Meteorologica 16 Sinica, 74(in press)(in Chinese) 17 18 Abstract Low-frequency component of daily rainfall in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River 19 Valley (LYRV), and the principal components of the global 850 hPa low-frequency zonal wind, 20 over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the extended complex 21 autoregressive model (ECAR) on a subseasonal forecast of the 50 －80-day low-frequency rainfall 22 component in the LYRV. This type of climate forecast method, which is based on a data-driven 23 model, can not only reflect the lagged variation information between the main low-frequency 24 principal component of a global circulation and the low-frequency rainfall component of the 25 LYRV in a complex space, but can also better describe the variation law of the principal 26 component of a climate system in a low dimensional space. A 14-year hindcast was conducted on 27 the subseasonal forecast of low-frequency component of the rainfall in the LYRV, for the period 28 ranging from 2001 to 2014. These experimental results showed that this ECAR model of a 50 － 29 80-day low-frequency component of the rainfall in the LYRV had a good forecast skill at the le