武都山区干旱气候特征与灾害风险区划.pdfVIP

ofAnhui 责任编辑黄小燕责任校对卢瑶 安徽农业科学，Journal Agi．Sci．2013，41(17)：7624—7626，7734 武都山区干旱气候特征与灾害风险区划 2 肖志强1，刘丽1，赵彦 (1．甘肃省陇南市气象局，甘肃武都746000；2．上海市宝山区气象局，上海宝山201901) 站经度、纬度、海拔高度与各站年平均干旱频率建立多元线性回归方程，计算武都区各地年平均干旱频率，结合各地人口、GDP、耕地比 等资料，截用AreGIS软件，得到干旱灾害危险性图层，再同承灾体易损性评价、灾害的孕灾背景进行叠加、合并以及等级戋1)分操作，最后 得到干旱灾害的风险评估及其区划。结果表明，近40年武都区有30年均有干旱出现，共出现各类干旱49次，其中，发生频率春旱 40．0％、春末夏初旱20．O％、伏旱35．0％、秋旱27．5％，年际出现干旱的频率为75．0％。武都区白龙江流域半山河谷和东南部低海拔区 干旱危险性等级最高，年际干旱频率62．3％，由此向北向高干旱危险性等级递减，干旱灾害风险由白龙江干热河谷向四周递减。 关键词武都山区；干旱；气候特征；灾害风险区划 中图分类号$423文献标识码A 文章编号0517—66ll(2013)17—07624—03 ClimaticCharacteristicsandDL,懿qlsterRisk inWuduMountainArea Drought Zoning XIA0 etal (LongnanMeteorologyBureau，Wudu。Gansu746000) Zhi-qiang Abstract tothe wasconductedonannual Accordingmeteorologicaldroughtgradestandard(GB／T2048l一2006)．statisticalanalysis average all andone in linear of kindsof ofnine stmionsin counties area 1971-2010 meteorological during LongnanCity．Multiple droughtfrequency eight of level ofeachstation． wasestablished altitudesea and annual regressionequation byusinglongitude，latitude，the average droughtfrequency annum ofWuduallaroundwas withthematerialoflocal farmland Averagedroughtfrequency area calculated，combining population，GDP，and ArcGIS disasterrisk Was hazard—affected assessmentand ratio．Usingsoflware，droughtlayerobtained，then bodyvulnerability disaster—pregnant were andclassified disasterriskassessmentandits were re— background