强对流天气预报检验新方法在上海的应用尝试-中国气象局图书馆.pdfVIP

气象科技 进展 强对流天气预报检验新方法在上海的应用尝试 1 1 1 2 戴建华 茅懋 邵玲玲 李佳 （1 上海中心气象台，上海 200030；2 中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030） 摘要：为了弥补常规检验方法的不足，挖掘预报的潜在价值，基于强对流天气预报的特点、短临预报业务需求和效益评 估用户调查，采用对比预报与实际的强对流天气目标之强度、面积、空间距离、形态和相似度等评价指标，建立包括格 点型、站点型和概率型的强对流预报检验方法、预报检验指标调整与合成方法，制定基于用户需求和使用倾向的强对流 短临检验指标和标准，尝试开发适合我国强对流预报预警发展的强对流短临预报新型检验业务产品，实现对强对流短临 预报的综合检验和评价。介绍了这一新尝试的设计和相关算法，及其在上海的试验应用。 关键词：强对流，检验，目标对象检验法 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.03.006 Applications of a New Verification Method for Severe Convection Forecasting and Nowcasting in Shanghai 1 1 1 2 Dai Jianhua , Mao Mao , Shao Lingling , Li Jia (1 Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 2 Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030) Abstract: To compensate for the disadvantages of the conventional verification methods and find the potential value of forecasts, a new verification method is developed for severe convection forecasting and nowcasting. This method is based on the characteristics of severe convective weather, the requirements of the very short-term forecasting and nowcasting operations, and performance evaluation of user surveys. In the approach of the method, forecasts for severe convection are compared to the observations aiming at their differences in intensity, area, distance, morphology and similarity. Several verification methods have been adopted for grid-based, site-based, and probabilistic forecasts. A forecast adjustment and integration method is also developed based on preference and tendency of users, and some verification indices and standards have been established. A series of operat