福建电网夏季降温负荷研究分析.pdfVIP

福建电网夏季降温负荷研究分析 1 2 2 1 2 吴荣福 黄文英 邓 勇 杨耿杰 姚宇臻 （1. 福州大学电气工程与自动化学院，福州 350108 ； 2. 国网福建电力调度控制中心，福州 350003 ） 摘要 基于福建电网历史负荷数据，采用全省整体分析和“子网累加”分析两种方法分析福 建电网降温负荷。首先，通过典型降温负荷曲线的分析揭示降温负荷特性；然后，建立降温负荷 与气温的敏感性回归模型得到降温负荷受气温影响的规律；最后，采用一元回归分析的方法测算 年最大降温负荷。通过实例比较，表明“子网累加”分析方法在降温负荷的研究分析中具有较高 可行性及准确性。 关键词：子网累加；降温负荷特性；气温敏感性；年最大降温负荷 Studies on Temperature-Lowering Load of Fujian Power Network Wu Rongfu1 Huang Wenying2 Deng Yong2 Yang Gengjie1 Yao Yuzhen2 (1. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108; 2. State Grid Fujian Power-Dispatch Control Center, Fuzhou 350003) Abstract This paper uses two methods of holistic analysis and subnet-accumulation to analyze the temperature-lowering load of Fujian province, based on the historical load data of Fujian power network. Firstly, the typical temperature-lowering load curves are analyzed to reveal the characteristic of temperature-lowering load. Secondly, the author establishes sensitive regression models between the temperature-lowering load and the temperature, and obtains the law that the temperature-lowering load is influenced by temperature. Finally, the annual maximum high-temperature related load is calculated by the method of monadic regression analysis. Practical examples show that subnet-accumulation means has the high feasibility and accuracy in the research of temperature-lowering load. Keywords ：subnet-accumulation ；temperature-lowering load characteristic ；temperature sensitivity ； annual maximum high-temperature related load 降温负荷是指由于空调等降温设备的开启，导 率，保障福建电网夏季安全、稳定、经济运行。 致电网负荷在短期内迅速增长的部分[1] 。近几年， 文献[2]采用最大负