牛津大学：AI 超越人类编年史.pdfVIP

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牛津大学：AI 超越人类编年史.pdf

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts 1,2 2 1,3 3 1 Katja Grace , John Salvatier , Allan Dafoe , Baobao Zhang , and Owain Evans 1Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University 2 AI Impacts 3 Department of Political Science, Yale University Abstract 7 1 Advances in artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, 0 health, science, ﬁnance, and the military [1, 2, 3]. To adapt public policy, we need to better 2 anticipate these advances [4, 5]. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outper- y a form humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), M writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe 4 there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating 2 all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers ] about anticipating and managing trends in AI. I