基于不同分布曲线的常州暴雨组合概率-河海期刊网.PDFVIP

第37卷第2期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2017年3月 Vol.37 No.2 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Mar. 2017 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2017.02.012 基于不同分布曲线的常州市暴雨组合概率 胡尊乐,张摇 悦,李摇 丹,汪摇 姗 (江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局,江苏 常州摇 213022) 摘要:基于常州雨量站1951—2015年的年最大1d、3d 降水量资料,利用Copula联结函数构建联合 分布函数,推算相应的同现重现期和组合风险率,并以此为基础,评价常州市2015年“6 ·26冶暴雨 可能的重现期和风险率。 结果表明:某一设计标准下的年最大1d、3d 降水遭遇时的同现重现期大 于年最大1d或3d 降水单变量对应的重现期;同一设计频率的暴雨遭遇的风险率较高,且随着重 现期增大而减小;“6 ·26冶暴雨的同现重现期为218a,同现风险率为17郾4%,此次暴雨具有特殊性 和罕见性,常州市未来的防洪形势将更为严峻。 关键词:暴雨组合;联结函数;年最大1d 降水;年最大3d 降水;常州“6 ·26冶暴雨 中图分类号:P333.2摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2017)02 0068 05 Probability of rainstorm combinations in Changzhou City based on different distribution curves/ / HU Zunle, ZHANGYue,LI Dan,WANG Shan(Changzhou Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Changzhou213022,China) Abstract:Based on annual maximum 1鄄day and3鄄day rainfall data from the Changzhou precipitation station from 1951to 2015,ajoint distribution function was constructed using the Copula function,and the corresponding co鄄occurrence return period and risk of rainstorm combination were calculated. Then,the function was used to evaluate the probable return period and risk of a rainstorm in Changzhou City onJune26,2015. The results show that the co鄄occurrence return period when the annual maximum 1鄄day and 3鄄day rainfall according to a certain design standard encounter is larger than the respective return periods of annual maximum 1鄄day and3鄄day rainfall. The riskwhen two rainstorms with the same design frequency encounter is higher,and will decrease with the increase of the corresponding return period. The co鄄occurrence return period of the rainstorm in Changzhou on June 26 i