谈谈统计预报的必要性.PDFVIP

气象科技 进展 谈谈统计预报的必要性 1 2 3 陶祖钰 赵翠光 陈敏 （1 北京大学物理学院大气和海洋科学系，北京 100871； 2 国家气象中心，北京 100081；3 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所，北京 100081） 摘要：首先从认识论的角度，即确定论和概率论，讨论了天气预报具有不确定性，在数值预报日益取代主观经验预报的 今天，统计预报还有其不可取代的重要性。在方法论上，统计预报属于客观归纳法；在理论上，统计预报具有不受数值 预报可预报性限制的特点。统计预报有相关法和相似法之分；小概率的极端天气，可以用相似法进行预报。集合预报是 确定论方法和概率论方法的有机结合，是当前天气预报的发展方向。最后指出，统计预报本身同样存在局限性，也必须 经受实际预报应用效果的检验。 关键词：天气预报，统计，相关性，相似性，小概率极端天气 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.01.001 The Necessity of Statistical Forecasts 1 2 3 Tao Zuyu , Zhao Cuiguang , Chen Min (1 Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 2 National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 3 Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081) Abstract: First, weather forecast uncertainty is discussed from the perspective of epistemology, namely, deterministic and probabilistic theory. Today, subjective forecast is increasingly replaced by the numerical weather prediction (NWP), but statistical forecasting is still irreplaceable. In terms of methodology, statistical forecasting is objective induction. Statistical prediction is not limited by predictability of NWP in theory. Statistical forecasting has a correlation or similar method; rare event related with extreme weather can be forecasted in similar method. Ensemble prediction method is a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods, and is the development direction of the current weather forecast. Finally, there are limitations on statistical prediction itself, and statistical forecasting must be also verified by the e