江西省“三驾马车”的协整分析.pdf

Advances in Social Sciences 社会科学前沿, 2017, 6(5), 538-546 Published Online May 2017 in Hans. /journal/ass /10.12677/ass.2017.65074 The Cointegration Analysis of “Troika” in Jiangxi Province Chao Yang Statistical Institute, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang Jiangxi rd th rd Received: May 3 , 2017; accepted: May 17 , 2017; published: May 23 , 2017 Abstract In macroeconomic, consumption, investment and net exports constitute the three components of aggregate demand, which has been compared to the troika to drive economic growth. Based on the statistical data in Jiangxi province 1990-2015, this paper analyzes the relationship be- tween the troika and economic growth, and studies the troika long-term equilibrium and short- term disequilibrium relationship by using co-integration model and error correction model. Results showed that the consumption rate showed a trend of gradual decline, the investment rate rising gradually development momentum, and net exports slowly changing, but presented negative; From the point of contribution rate, consumption contribution rate is obviously low, investment contribution rate is relatively high, and the net export contribution rate is smaller. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between troika; In the short term, consumption has great influence on the exports, but has weak impact on exports, and investment has weak impact on exports. Finally, according to the results of the study, this paper put forward to re- lated suggestions, which promote coordinated development of troika, and a