基于灰色关联度货物运输事故安全评价及对策研究基于灰色关联度的货物运输事故安全评价及对策研究.doc

基于灰色关联度的货车运输安全评价及对策研究 赵鲁华 ，巨凯 ，曹庆贵 （1山东科技大学 资环学院，山东 青岛 266590） 摘要：近年来，货车运输事故在交通事故中所占的比例不断提高，且极易造成重大伤亡事故。为了提高企业对货车运输安全的重视程度，加强安全管理以减少运输事故。首先对我国近十年的货车运输事故进行调查分析。采用灰色关联度法从物流系统的角度对货运事故进行评价分析，得到货车运输事故与各因素的关联度。结果表明：管理（人、车）、物流操作（装卸、包装等）及其他因素（设施、天气等）是货车运输事故的主要致因（关联度分别为：0.850，0.659和0.567）。最后，基于以上分析结果对提高货运安全的策略进行研究。提出建立货物运输动态信息监管平台，各交通执法部门加强对企业物流运输的全程监管。 关键词：货车运输事故；灰色关联分析；关联度；货物运输动态信息监管系统 中图分类号：X937 文献标识码：A Truck Transportation Safety Assessment Based on Grey Correlation Analysis and Strategy Research ZHAO Lu-hua，JU Kai，CAO Qing-gui （Shandong University of Science and Technology, College of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, Shandong Qingdao 266590, China） Aeasily cause serious casualties. In order to make enterprises to pay more attention to truck transportation security, and strengthen safety management to reduce transportation accidents, first, investigated and analyzed the decades of data of truck transportation accidents of China. Assessing and analyzing truck accidents in terms of logistics system by using grey correlation analysis, obtain the correlation degree between truck transportation accidents and various factors. The results show that management (people, truck), logistics operations (loading and unloading, packaging) and other factors (infrastructure, weather etc.) are the main reasons of truck transportation accidents (the correlation degrees are 0.850, 0.659 and 0.567 respectively). Based on the results, also researched the strategies for improving truck transportation security, proposed to establish dynamic information supervision system on truck transportation. Traffic law enforcement agencies should strengthen the process monitoring on the logistics transportation of enterprises. Keywords: truck transportation accidents; grey correlation analysis; correlation degree; dynamic information supervision system on truck transportation 物流活动包括运输、装卸搬运、储存、包装、流通加工等环节。任何一个环节出现问题，都会给企业带来巨大的财产损失、人员伤亡甚至社会危害。但从目前国内物流的研究现状来看，对物流安全方面的研究相对较少，更缺少从物流的角度进行事故数据的