2016年虚拟现实VR行业分析研究报告.doc

EQUITY RESEARCH | January 13, 2016 Virtual and augmented reality have the potential to become the next big computing platform. All around us are examples of where VR (which immerses the user in a virtual world) and AR (which overlays digital information onto the physical world) can reshape existing ways of doing things – from buying a new home to interacting with a doctor or watching a concert. In the first of a new Profiles in Innovation series, we examine what VR/AR could become, the evolving use cases and the markets that could be created and disrupted.  ViPrtRuOaFlIL EASuIgNmIeNnNteOdV ARTeIaOliNty Understanding the race for the next computing platform Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to /research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.  Table of Contents Portfolio manager’s summary 4 Virtual and augmented reality in 6 charts 8 Current state of the market 9 Using the past to predict the future 11 The PC revolution 11 The rise of the smartphone and tablet 12 Summary of our hardware and software forecasts 14 Use cases and software market detail 16 Videogames 18 Live events 19 Video entertainment 21 Retail 23 Real estate 26 Healthcare 28 Education 30 Military 31 Engineering 32 Details behind our hardware forecasts 35 Building a framework for volume adoption 35 Building a framework for price reductions 43 VR/AR HMD hardware categories 44 HMD hardware components 45 HMD types, vendors, BoM Costs and ASP Estimates 46 Virtual reality and augmented reality enablers 50 Alph