混凝土重力坝系统可靠度计算研究.pdf

混凝土重力坝系统可靠度计算 1 2 徐兰玉 ， 任青文 (1.河海大学水利水电工程学院，南京 210098; 2.河海大学土木工程学院，南京210098) 摘要：针对重力坝系统中存在的随机不确定性，采用结构系统可靠度理论可以较真实地反映重力坝系统 的整体安全度。本文采用一般界限法、窄界限法和PNET 法计算了某重力坝的系统可靠度，由于失效概率 很小，采用蒙特卡罗法计算效率低下，自适应重要抽样法可大大提高计算效率，且达到较好计算精度。 关键词：混凝土重力坝，安全度，系统可靠度，相关系数，自适应重要抽样 System reliability calculation of concrete gravity dam 1 2 XU Lan-yu , REN Qing-wen (1.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 ；2 College of Civil Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098) Abstract: So many random uncertainties existing in concrete gravity dams, such as loads, material parameters and model and so on, it is necessary to use structural system reliability theory to evaluate its safety degree. In this paper the general limit method, Ditlevsen narrow limit method and PENT method are used to calculate the degree of reliability of a gravity dam system. Because of small failure probability of the system which would lead to low computational efficiency using Monte-carlo method, adaptive importance sampling method is used to calculate the degree of reliability which can improve calculation efficiency and get better calculation accuracy. Keywords: concrete gravity dam, safety degree, system reliability, corresponding coefficients, adaptive importance sampling 1引言 目前重力坝的安全度评价基本上基于确值性分析的安全系数来评价，通过超载法、降 低强度储备法及综合法来计算其安全系数，该法存在一个明显的缺点，即不能真实反映重 力坝系统中的不确定性。事实上，荷载、材料参数和模型等都具有随机性，采用结构可靠 度理论研究其安全度将是一个必然趋势[1] 。结构系统可靠度研究是当前国内外结构研究的 热点[2-5]，系统可靠度能较真实地反应系统整体的安全度，而水工结构系统可靠度研究尚处 起步阶段，其相关性问题是求解