道路交通事故组合预测研究.doc

本科学生毕业论文 道路交通事故组合预测研究 系部名称： 汽车工程系 专业班级： 交通工程 B05-15班 学生姓名： 指导教师： 宋成举 职 称： 助 教 黑 龙 江 工 程 学 院 二○○九年六月 The Graduation Thesis for Bachelors Degree Study on the Combined Forecasting Model of Road Traffic Accidents Candidate： Specialty：Traffic ngineering Class：B0-15 Supervisor：Assistant . Heilongjiang Institute of Technology 2009-06·Harbin  摘 要 道路交通事故预测是道路交通安全研究的一项重要内容，预测的目的是为了掌握交通事故的未来发展状况，对交通安全措施的可行性和实施效果进行合理评价，有效地控制各影响因素，以达到减少交通事故的目的。 本文首先介绍了我国道路交通安全的现状和交通事故的特点，统计1973—2008年的我国道路交通事故各项指标（见表A1），包括事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数、经济损失总数、机动车保有量、公路总是里程数等指标事故次数、死亡人数、经济损失总数 关键词：道路交通事故；预测；灰色预测模型；指数平滑法；回归分析法；组合预测模型 ABSTRACT The road accidents forecasting is one of the important content of the research of traffic safety. The purpose of road accidents forecasting is to analyze the tendency of road accidents under existing road traffic conditions, evaluate the feasibility and practical effectiveness of traffic safety measures, control the factors affecting road accidents, and reduce the traffic accidents. Firstly，this thesis introduces the present situation of Chinese road traffic safety and the traffic accidents characteristics, and the statistical data of Chinese road traffic accidents each index from1973to 2008(Table A1), including the number of deaths and injuries, the total number of economic losses, the total number of vehicles, the total mileage of highway and so on. Secondly, this thesis introduces several forecasting models of road accidents, it analyzed the grey forecasting model, exponential smoothing and regression analysis method. Then, I predict the number of accidents ,the number of deaths and injuries , the total number of economic losses by using three forecasting models ,and assessing the forecasting results .Finally, by using the principle of combined forecasting, it have some accident data to construct a combined forecasting model, through the historical data fitting, validate the model is effective