[基础科学]波士顿咨询公司对发达国家邮政业务量的预测.pdf

Projecting US Mail volumes to 2020 Final Report – Detail March 2, 2010 Objectives and approach Xxxxx-xx/Footer 1 Objectives of BCGs assignment BCG was asked to develop base case projections of mail volumes to 2020 Base Case is a business-as-usual scenario with the following assumptions • No new revenue or cost savings initiatives beyond those already in the current USPS plan • No legislative or regulatory changes • Economy returns to historical long-term growth rate in two to three years • No major economic or other disruptions Base Case forecast incorporates extensive, recent independent research • Interviews, surveys, BCG expertise, benchmarks from other countries, and commercial research Xxxxx-xx/Footer 2 Approach Segmented mail into • First-Class Mail: invoices, statements, ad mail, payments components with common • Standard Mail: letters, flyers, catalogs behaviors • Other categories: magazines, packages, etc Interviewed and surveyed • 50+ Senders interviewed for views on future use of mail Senders and Consumers • Average USPS revenue of $200M for sample, and representation from all major industry segments • 3,000+ Consumers were surveyed by phone and by internet on perception of online alternatives to mail Incorporated broad set of • Forrester, Celent, Winterberry, Federal Reserve, etc industry data and research • BCG industry exper