[经济学]均衡增长与结构变革的理论、证据和政策研究生院20111020.ppt

提纲 一、发达国家和发展中国家的有关增长的典型事实归纳 二、典型化事实：均衡增长和结构变革理论 三、中国经济增长典型事实和情景分析 四、中国学者对中国经济道路的自我理论和政策探索 一、发达国家和发展中国家的典型化事实归纳 If you live from paper to paper, seminar to seminar, and conference to conference, it is easy to lose faith in scientific progress. “THE NEW KALDOR FACTS:IDEAS, INSTITUTIONS, POPULATION, AND HUMAN CAPITAL” Charles I. Jones，Paul M. Romer Working Paper 15094，/papers/w15094，June 2009 《新卡尔多事实》一文开篇话核心在“新探索”；“新经济地理”也将收益递增放入到了传统模型（克鲁格曼），城市是典型的规模递增特征 大量的国家发展是从结构到均衡的，但完整的理论却是相反的是从均衡理论到结构 均衡理论体系来自于卡尔多的六个典型化事实，构造了完整的新古典学派，索罗的增长方式和新古典研究框架（《增长理论—一种解析》索罗）最近新增长理论学派归纳的新六个典型化事实，但这次不是理论终结性的典型化事实，而是理论新探索的典型化事实，当然新增长理论最近再次被争论。 作为中国学者归纳中国增长的新现实和运用国际共识逻辑和方法探索、发现和解决中国自己的问题成为了一个学者的学术基础。 新老卡尔多的事实：均衡增长理论 Kaldor, 1961:均衡增长的典型化事实，奠定了新古典理论 1. Labor productivity has grown at a sustained rate. 2. Capital per worker has also grown at a sustained rate. 3. The real interest rate or return on capital has been stable. 4. The ratio of capital to output has also been stable. 5. Capital and labor have captured stable shares of national income. 6. Among the fast growing countries of the world, there is an appreciable variation in the rate of growth “of the order of 2–5 percent.” 均衡的必要条件研究：左大培《内生稳态经济增长模型的生产结构》，社科出版社2005年 新古典增长理论的框架已经完备（行为模型，效用函数、约束条件，一般均衡过程和最优解）；索罗定义TFP，这两个方面构成了现代增长理论。 新典型化事实：均衡理论的再探索 1. Increases in the extent of the market. Increased flows of goods, ideas, finance, and people — via globalization as well as urbanization — have increased the extent of the market for all workers and consumers. 2. Accelerating growth. For thousands of years, growth in both population and per capita GDP has accelerated, rising from virtually zero to the relatively rapid rates observed in the last century. 3. Variation in modern growth rates. The variation in the rate of growth of per capita GDP increases with the distance from the technology frontier. 4. Large income and TFP differences. Differences in measured inputs explain less than half of the enormous cross country differences in