麦格理-印度-宏观策略-印度策略：宏观利好市场.pdfVIP

INDIA India Strategy Macro cheer for markets Even after recent underperformance, Event Midcaps are trading at a 10% premium to large caps vs a 12% average  Our recent interactions with investors have suggested that the weakening discount in the last 10 years macro was considered to be the key risk to Indian markets. With sharply lower inflation, which is likely to recede further, yields are likely to soften and fears 21 Nifty Nifty Midcap of a hike in the near term are likely to subside. Industrial production data for 19 Jan’18 indicates a strong tailwind to a cyclical recovery in India. (Refer here 17 for detailed analysis). Ytd, India has underperformed MSCI EM Index by 8.8% 15 and we believe valuations have become reasonable at a FY19E PER of 13 11 18.3x. We continue our preference for large caps . Our top three picks in India 9 to play a cyclical recovery would be: LT, ICICI Bank Maruti. 7 5 Impact 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - b b b b b b b b b b b  Latest IIP data supportive of our thesis o