电子商务网站中客户流失预测模型研究毕业论文.docVIP

摘 要 近年来，随着互联网的发展，信息化社会的日益进步，电子商务网站作为企业新的营销渠道，越来越多的消费者已经开始接受网络购物这一新的购物方式。电子商务网站越来越成为众多网络用户光顾的场所同时也带来了一系列的问题，客户时常处于不稳定状态成为电子商务运营商解决的一个问题。本文首先在对客户关系管理理论及电子商务客户流失、数据挖掘相关理论理解的基础上，结合电子商务网站客户流失的特征，提出了电子商务网站下的客户流失预测模型。接着，本文通过理论和实证相结合的方式，以电子商务网站客户购买数据为研究背景，对样本数据使用SPSS17.0进行描述性分析的基础上，分别利用Pareto/NBD模型朴素贝叶斯算法模型进行实证研究。论文详细数据的说明与解释模型模型评价。 最后，结合客户关系管理理论及实证结果，提出了网站客户流失类型对客户流失进行受力分析，发现导致客户流失的推力和引力最后通过引入拉力阻力策略来控制网站客户流失。从实践角度看，本文提出的研究思路可以为我国电子商务行业客户流失分析、预测提供一定的参考。 关键词 电子商务；客户流失；Pareto/NBD模型；朴素贝叶斯算法；Abstract In recent years, with the development of the Internet and advanced information society, E-commerce website as a new marketing channel for enterprises, more and more consumers have started to accept this kind of online shopping purchasing way.E-commerce website has increasingly become a place of many Internet users visited at the same time also brought a series of problems, customers unstable, high customer churn rate. For the website, how best to avoid the loss of customers, reduce customer churn rate, has become one of the focus E-business operators should pay attention to. In this paper，firistly , based on discussing customer primarily theories such as CRM theory, E-business customer theory churn and DM theory, this dissertation, combining with characteristics of customer churn in E-business website ,four kinds of customer churn prediction model have been provided. Secondly, the study has implications for both theory and practice. Based on CDNOW website’s customer data, using Pareto/NBD model, a Na?ve Bayes model, support vector machines model and BP arithmetic neural networks model to predict customer activity .In dissertation, a detailed description of the empirical process in Part IV including data discription and explanation, empirical model, model evaluation by numerical indicators . Finall, the cassification of website customer churn and principles of controlling customers churn are proposed on CRM theory and proofed results. Then introduce the idea of ??the forces on c