Estimating Peak Oil Production A Reply to the USGS估计石油生产高峰期回复美国地质调查局.pptVIP

IWOOD-IV, Lisbon, May 2005. Global Oil Depletion: Methodologies Results  R.W. Bentleyc/o Dept. of Cybernetics, University of Reading, UK.ASPO - Association for the Study of Peak Oil Gas Why the Disagreement? Two data sets: - Industry data: accurate but expensive - Proved reserves: misleading, and wrong. Forgetfulness Economic arguments omitted from models: - Human ingenuity - Price: incr. exploration recovery; decr. demand. - Technology gain - ‘Resources into reserves’; oil as % of GDP; etc. Use of USGS data without analysis Large volumes of non-conventional oil Economists geologists do not talk Few analysts; some very poor analysis. * The University of Reading, UK. Postgraduate Research Institute for Sedimentology: Prof. M.L. Coleman (ex-BP), Prof. B.W. Sellwood. Department of Engineering: Dr. J.D. Burton, Mr. R.H. Booth (ex-Shell), Dr. R.M. Mayer (ex-BP), Prof. P.D. Dunn. Department of Cybernetics: Dr. G.R. Whitfield, Dr. R.W. Bentley (ex-Exxon). Classification of Oil Forecasts Group 1: Resource-limited global production peak 1996 - 2020. (Conventional oil only / Conv. + Non-conv.) [Many: Hubbert 1956; ESSO, Shell 1970s; EnergyFiles 2004, Deffeyes 2005.] Group 2: ‘Business-as-usual’. Resources meet demand to 2020 - 2030 (forecast end). (Not say if resource-limited peak later.) [WEC/IIASA 1998; IEA WEO 2000; US EIA 2002; EU: WETO (POLES) 2003; Exxon-Mobil 2004.] Group 3: No resource-limited peak (in medium-term). [BP (P. Davies, Chief Economist); ENI (L. Maugeri, Gp. Snr. VP); Institutes: OIES, CGES, RIIA; Academics: Stevens, Chesshire, Kemp, Adelman, Lynch, Yergin.] There is a whole talk looking at these reasons in detail. But here: Methods used by Groups 1 2. Peaking in - - Conventional oil (excl. very heavy oils, tar sands, Orinoco oil, oil from oil shales, NGLs; also ex