Confidence Intervals - Proportions高比例的置信区间.pptVIP

INCM 9201Quantitative Methods Confidence Intervals - Proportion Confidence Intervals As you learned previously, Inferential Statistics relies on the Central Limit Theorem. Methods for making inferences are based on sound sampling methodology and fall into two categories: Estimation – Information from the sample can be used to estimate or predict the unknown mean of a population. Example: What is the mean decrease in Cholesterol due to taking Drug A? Hypothesis Testing – Information from the sample can be used to determine if a population mean is greater than or equal to another population or a specified number. Example: Is the mean cholesterol reading for patients taking Drug A lower than the cholesterol reading for a control group? These notes will guide you through estimating proportion confidence intervals. Including: CIs for one population proportions CIs for the difference between two population proportions. In each case: The formula will be presented; The formula will be applied (manually); The formula will be applied via SPSS. Confidence Intervals Confidence Intervals - Formula The interval for any CI estimate can be expressed as: Sample estimate + conf. level * standard error In the case of a single population proportion, the expression is: p + Z * SQRT((p(1-p))/n) Where, “p” is the proportion of units in a sample; Z is the associated # of Std deviations associated with the required confidence level; n is the number of obs in the sample. Typical Z scores used in CI Estimation: 90% confidence = 1.645 95% confidence = 1.96 98% confidence = 2.33 99% confidence = 2.575 Can you explain where these numbers come from? Confidence Intervals Confidence Intervals - Application For example, lets say that we took a poll of 100 KSU students and determined that 26% voted Libertarian. Report the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of KSU students expected to vote Libertarian. Now, assuming that you need to mai