Modeling Parameters in Stock Synthesis在股票的合成参数建模.pptVIP

Modeling Parameters in Stock Synthesis Modeling population processes2009 IATTC workshop Outline General framework Bounds and priors Temporal variation Relationship among parameters General framework All parameter inputs have 14 or 7 elements First 7: bounds, init value, prior info, phase Next 7: advanced options for time variation Conditional inputs depending on options Bounds and priors All parameters bounded Prior options: uniform, normal, lognormal, symmetric and non-symmetric beta Soft bounds Optional penalty (set in starter file) applied to all parameters Keeps ADMB from getting stuck on bounds Acts along with user-specified priors Equivalent to symmetric beta with shape parameter = 0.001 Temporal variation Temporal variation: blocks Requires conditional input for extra parameters lines (same as other variation types) Fixed time intervals specified in control file Additional parameters may be: Multiplicative offset from base value Additive offset from base value Replace base value for interval of years May have random walk from one block to next Temporal variation: deviations Defined by Type (base+dev or base?edev) Start and end years for Normal distribution penalty Not zero-centered Temporal variation: trends Only 3 parameters Smooth alternative to blocks for cases that don’t support many parameters Final value may be offset from base or new value Parameter as function of covariate Environmental variable: Ey Pary = base+link?Ey or base?eEy May be combined with other options (i.e. deviations around environmental index) Covariate relationship to be used in future versions of SS for density dependence: Mortality parameters as a function of biomass Keeping time-varying parameters within bounds Options: time varying parameters unconstrained by bounds on base parameter logistic transformation to keep adjusted parameter value within bounds of base Offsets from other parameters Parameters for males often treated as offsets from females growth mortalit