法国-宏观经济-法国：潜在的增长并没有奇迹般地增加0.75个百分点.pdfVIP

Flash Economics France: Potential growth has not miraculously increased by 0.75 percentage point 13 April 2018 - 394 The sharp increase in companies’ recruitment difficulties in France shows that the unemployment rate is close to the structural unemployment rate, and therefore that growth will return to the level of potential growth. However, available growth forecasts for France for all the coming years show a growth rate of nearly 2% per year, i.e. practically 0.75 percentage point more than the usual estimates of potential growth in France. Potential growth cannot possibly have increased by 0.75 percentage point in France: all relevant indicators (labour force and youth skills, companies’ modernisation of capital, foreign trade, companies’ capacity to export revealing their level of technological sophistication, etc.) on the contrary explain the low level of long-term growth. It will take several years for the very positive reforms that have been