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Excess Capacity More Is On The Way Every 1% Pt. of Market Share Translates into $1.0bn in Profits 853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1% of NA Capacity, or $5bn in Pretax Profits NA Pretax Profit Big Three FY03E (in MM) $1,971 Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates Revenue Pressures Worst Since 1970’s New Car CPI vs. Domestic Light Vehicle Sales Source: CPI Morgan Stanley Research Y/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPI Source: CPI Morgan Stanley Research Price Reductions Pressure Manufacturers Every 1% Decline in Prices is Worth $1.0bn at GM $850mm at Ford $550mm at DCX Source: Morgan Stanley Research Big Three Market Share Continues to Slide 76.0% 60.2% 61.7% Every 1% Point of Share is Worth Roughly $1bn in Profit Source: Autodata Morgan Stanley Research Market Share Winners / Losers – FY03 Source: Autodata Morgan Stanley Research Big Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY-03 vs. FY-02 Source: Autodata Morgan Stanley Research US Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - Present Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Japanese Yen vs. U.S. Dollar Source: FactSet Morgan Stanley Research Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03 Source: Company Data Morgan Stanley Research Note: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little Source: Morgan Stanley Research Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research *Morgan Stanley Estimates Excluding Pension OPEB Expense for the Big Three Porsche Nissan BMW Honda Toyota Hyundai GM Peugeot Kia VW DCX Renault Ford Fiat 16.4% 10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2% Higher Rates Could be a Negative Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings Extended terms suggest longer replacement rates. Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle. Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. Now Source: FRB Morgan Stanley Research GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs Source: FRB Morgan