dsge下的中国货币政策非线性特征分析word格式论文.docxVIP

优秀毕业论文 精品参考文献资料 Abstract The monetary policy follow a certain rule, other than discretionary, is not only helpful to limit the rapid rise of price, but also beneficial to promote a steady growth of economy. Currently most central bank operates the monetary policy staring to the interest rate and money supply, which means that the adjustment of interest rate and money supply is based on the inflation gap and output gap. The typical monetary policy includes Taylor rule and McCallum rule. To illustrate the problem we will propose, we take Taylor rule as example. The basic Taylor rule implies the adjustment of interest rate as a linear function of output gap and inflation gap, which is not consistent with observations of market agents. In contrast, central bank does not control the interest rate based on a constant rule, but on a nonlinear one with structure variance. To illustrate the monetary policy of central bank as a nonlinear rule is better for market agents to form their expectations, and better for administration sector to regulate the macro-economy. This paper focuses on the Taylor rule, and defines two new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In one model, monetary rule is set constant, but another is set Markov regime switching. To incorporate the regime switching probability into the rational expectation function, we transform the nonlinear Markov regime switching model to a linear one. Then we estimate parameters with MCMC methods based on Metropolis and Hastings sampling. To compare the two models, we calculate the marginal likelihood, which shows that the latter is more fit to the data in China. In other words, two different monetary regimes, called “active” and “passive”, exist in the China’s monetary policy operation. Key words: Taylor rule, Markov Regime-Switching DSGE model, Bayesian methods, Random-walk MH sampling III 目录 摘要 I  HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 Abstract II  HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 1 导论 1  HYPERLINK \l _b