基于声誉理论的信用评级利益冲突问题分析-analysis of conflicts of interest in credit rating based on reputation theory.docxVIP

AbstractAt the end of 2007,the The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broken out. One of the important ammunition that is three rating agencies including Moody ,standard poor and fitch ratings to pursue excess profit to provide the virtual high credit rating leve. At the same time,because of the asymmetric information,investors will be based on virtual high credit rating level made the wrong decisions,so as to make their own loss.As a result,the reputation of the rating agencies will be severely affect,and theirprofit,also will decline.In this conflict，reputation became a effective factors to restrictthe rating agencies get excess profits.Based on the Principal-agent theory, reputation theory and oligopoly theory, this article defines the conflicting relationship between investors and rating agenices in the credit ranting market,and analyzed the cause of the conflict of interest from credit rating charging system, construction of rating products,and system defect.On the original reputation premium model’s guard,this paper import a newβfactor in the model to reflect the change of reputation capital,so that the adjustment of the assumption of the model in this paper can be more tally with the actul situation.After that,based on the new reputation premium model,the paper explored that whether the credit agencies will provide the virtual high credit rating leve for the short-term profit in their process of pursuiting profits and reputation capita with the influence of βfactor.According to moody’s annual revenue and net profit last 12 years before the crisis,and it’s net profit and revenue quarterly date after the crisis,this paper described the reputation capital recovery process of credit rating agencies,after their products of virtual high credit rating leve have been sold.Then from the credit rating monopoly situation which is the existing overall market ,analyzed the serious influence to the interest conflict problem when the strategic of three major credit rating agenci