ON THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT_Robert Lucas资料.pdf

U.S. copyright law (title 17 of U.S. code) governs the reproduction and redistribution of copyrighted material. Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (!988) 3-42. North-Ho]lar~d ON THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT* Robert E. LUCAS, Jr. Unioersityof Chicago, Chicago,IL 60637, USA Received August 19~7, final version received February 1988 7 ~ paper considers the prosl~:ts for constructing a neoclassical theory of gcowth and infema- ~ional trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: ~ model emphasizing physical capital accumula- tion and ~eehnolo#cal change, a model emphasizk~g human capital accumulation through school- ing. and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing. 1. Introduction By the problem of economic developmcn~ I raean simply the problem of accounting for the observed pattern, across countries and across time, in levels and rates of growth of per capit~ income. This may seem too narrow a defirfition, and perhaps it is, but thinkir~g about income patterns will neces- sarily involve us in thinking about many other aspects of societies too, so I would suggest that we withhold judgment on the scope of this definition until we have a clearer idea of where it leads us. The main features of levels and rates of growth of national incomes are well enough known to al! of us, but I want to begin with a few numbers, so as to set a quantitative tone and to keep us from getting mired in the wrong kind of details. Unless I say otherwise, all figures are from the World B