加入商品期货后的投资组合优化分析-optimization analysis of investment portfolio after adding commodity futures.docxVIP
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加入商品期货后的投资组合优化分析-optimization analysis of investment portfolio after adding commodity futures
ABSTRACTBenefitingfromtherapidgrowthofnationaleconomy,China’sfuturesmarketshasbeenincreasinglymatureandleapedfromthequantitativechangetothequalitativechange.Withthegrowthofinstitutionalinvestorsandtheincreaseofnationalincomepercapita,commodityfuturesarefrequentlyappearingininvestors’portfolios,andcommodityfutures’financialattributeareobviousmoreandmore.So,cancommodityinvestmentsimproveinvestors’utility?Whatisthecompositionofoptimalportfolioincludingthosecommodityfuturesandotherassetclasses?Wearedevotingourselvestoansweringthesequestions,sothattoprovideusefulinformationforinvestorstomakescientificinvestmentdecisions.BasedonthereferencefrompreviousliteratureinresearchmethodsandresultsinChapter2,wetestwhetherthecommodityindexfundsandcommodityfuturescontractsarethespanningoftraditionalportfoliosincludingstocksandbondsinChapter3toanswerthebasicquestionaboveinitially.InChapter4,wearetoconstructtheoptimalportfolioconsistingofcommodityfuturesonlyinthegeneralmean-varianceframework,takingtherisk-lessassetsandallowingtheinvestorstoborrowcapitalforinvesting.Weinvestigatetheeffectoftheintroductionofcommodityindexfundsandcommodityfuturesontheefficientfrontieroftraditionalportfoliostocomparetheportfolio’sperformancebetweenbeforeandaftercontainingthecommodityassetsdirectlyandvisually.Theeffectofriskaversiononthecompositionofoptimalportfolioisalsoinvestigated.Chapter6concludeswithasummaryandprospectsthefuturestudy.Aftertheempiricalanalysisusingthedatafromthestockmarkets,bondmarkets,commodityfuturesmarketsinChina,wecandrawseveralmainconclusionsasfollows:first,resultsfromthespanningtestsaren’tinfavorofinvestmentincommodityfutures.Investorscannotgetadditionalvaluefromit.Second,theweightsofvariouskindsofcommodityfuturesvarygreatlyintheoptimalportfolioconsistingofonlycommodityfuturesunderthemean-varianceframework.However,opposingsomerestrictionsontheweightsofthesekindsofcommodityfuturescanlowertheportfolioriskssubstantially.Third,theintroductionofcommodityindexfundsdon’tmovetheefficientf
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