技术创新与能源回弹效应之探讨——以中国工业为例-discussion on technology innovation and energy rebound effect - taking chinese industry as an example.docx

摘 要由于能源回弹效应的存在，技术创新对能源消耗水平的影响变得复杂，有必要就不 同类型的创新行为对能耗水平的影响进行深入的研究，以作为能源消费政策制定的指导， 有效地缓解经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾。文章首先从宏观作用机理展开，剖析技术 创新影响能源消耗的机制过程；其次，运用非参数 Malmquist 生产率指数分解模型测算 并分解我国 30 个省份 2001～2012 年的全要素生产率，区分不同的创新活动类别，并对 分解结果进行分析；在此基础上，提出相关性分析和韦恩图两种能源回弹效应验证方法， 从横向、纵向初步探讨不同创新类型与能源强度的关系，多角度证实能源回弹效应的存 在性；进一步地，在划分经济发展模式的基础上进行面板回归分析，探究能源回弹效应 的省际异质性；最后，根据得到的结论提出我国实现节能减排和可持续发展的政策建议。结果表明：能源回弹效应现象在我国是存在的，原始创新活动会使得“高工业产值、 高能源消耗”组别的能源强度下降，而使“高工业产值、低能源消耗”组别产生能源回 弹效应；“高工业产值、高能源消耗”组别开展二次创新能够降低能源强度，但是，“高 工业产值、低能源消耗”与“低工业产值、低能源消耗”组别则相反，会带来能源回弹 效应；不同经济发展模式省份的能源强度受技术创新活动的影响存在省际异质性。关键词：能源回弹效应；创新类型；数据包络 DEA；经济发展模式IAbstractBecause of the energy rebound effect, the impact of technological innovation on the level of energy consumption is complicated, there is a need for in-depth study on the impact of different types of innovation on the level of energy consumption. As the guidance of scientific energy policy, the paper purposes to ease the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection effectively. Firstly, from the perspective of macro mechanism, the paper study the process of analysis of the impact of technological innovation on the energy consumption; Secondly, to distinguish between the different types of innovative activities, the paper uses the non-parametric Malmquist Productivity Index decomposition model to estimates of 30 provinces from the year of 2001 to 2012 TFP and its decomposition of China, then analysis the result of the decomposition. From the perspective of horizontal and vertical view, the paper use Venn diagram and correlation analysis method to explore relationships between different types of innovation and energy intensity. Furthermore, on the basis of the divided model of economic development, the paper uses the panel regression analysis to explore the inter-provincial heterogeneity. Lastly, the paper gives some policy recommendations to achieve energy conservation and sustainable development in accordance with the conclusions.The result of the pape