技术进步对中国就业的影响——基于技术偏向视角-the influence of technological progress on chinas employment - based on the perspective of technological bias.docx

摘要在全球技术进步存在偏向性背景下，通过总结归纳前人现有研究工作，运用中 国 1990—2012 年相关数据对中国的技术进步偏向性做出较为深入的研究和探索，并 针对所研究的结论提出相应政策建议。首先综述了过去几十年对有偏技术进步的研 究历程，分别考察了技术进步偏向以及技术进步对就业总量和就业结构的理论机制。 利用中国 1990—2012 年相关数据采用标准化系统方法测算了中国的资本—劳动以及 技能劳动—非技能劳动的替代弹性系数，并在所求参数基础上构建并计算了中国的 技术进步偏向性指数，通过计算发现中国的资本—劳动弹性系数为 0.55，技能劳动—非技能劳动的替代弹性为 11.09，进一步计算技术进步偏向性指数，发现样本期内 中国该指数各年数值均为正，即中国的技术进步是偏向于技能劳动的，在全国范围 内技术的提高使得技能劳动不断代替非技能劳动，并且这种偏向呈现加速的态势。 接着实证检验技术进步偏向性对于就业弹性及就业结构的作用。在考察技术偏向对 就业的作用影响时，分别从理论和实证两方面检验了技术进步偏向对就业弹性和就 业结构的作用，发现技术进步的技能偏向降低了就业弹性，对就业结构优化有显著 的促进作用。基于以上的研究工作，最后部分提出了加快产业结构调整、提高服务 业比重，加强教育和技能培训，以及统筹城乡发展合理推进城镇化等政策建议。关键词：技术进步偏向，就业弹性，就业结构，技能劳动IAbstractThe paper summarized the predecessors research on the biased technological progress, used the related data of China from 1990 to 2012 to make thorough research and exploration, then put forward the research conclusion and the corresponding policy recommendations. At first, the paper reviewed the study on biased technological progress the past few decades, inspected the technological progress towards and technical progress on the theoretical mechanism of total employment and the employment structure. Using the standardization system method, applied the related data of China from 1990 to 2012 to measure the Chinese elasticity coefficient of capital - labor and skilled - nonskilled labor, and built and calculated the index of Chinas technological progress bias based on request parameters, found that Chinas capital - labor elasticity coefficient is 0.55, skilled - nonskilled elasticity coefficient is 11.09, the technology progress bias index value in China is positive in every sample period . The outcomes meant that biased technical progress of China was towards the skilled labor, the increase of nationwide technique made skilled labor continuously replace the nonskilled labor, and accelerated the deviation trend. Then the paper empirically tested the impact of technology progress bias on the employment elasticity and the employment structure. The paper examined the role of t