产出与通货膨胀实时缺口对中国货币政策系统性影响.docVIP

产出与通货膨胀实时缺口对中国货币政策系统性影响 　　摘 要：基于HP滤波法对中国1997―2011年各季度统计数据进行分析，结果表明，产出与通货膨胀实时缺口的估算偏差能够对货币政策产生系统性影响，并引发货币政策的过度反应；而且在国际金融危机前后，这种系统性影响更加显著。因此，中央银行需要适当降低货币政策规则当中产出与通货膨胀缺口的实时反应系数，即现实的货币政策的实时反应系数应该比计量模型估算的（理论上的）反应系数更小一些。在制定货币政策时需要更加审慎，一方面进一步加强宏观经济活动的日常监测工作，另一方面要充分利用多种货币政策工具进行“微调”，同时还需要努力构筑防范外部冲击的“防火墙”。 　　关键词：产出缺口；通货膨胀缺口；实时估计；最终估计；损失函数；货币政策规则；货币政策过度反应；系统性偏差；HP滤波 　　中图分类号：?F822；F224.0? 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1674-8131（2012）02-0037-09 　　Systematic Impact of Real-time Output Gaps and 　　Inflation Gaps on Monetary Policies of ChinaHUANG Rong-zhe?1, NONG Li-na?2, ZHU Yan-yu?2, LIU Chan-chan?2 　　(1. Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning 530003, China; 　　2. Nanning Central Branch of People’s Bank of China, Nanning 530028, China) 　　Abstract: Based on HP filter, China’s quarterly data between 1997 and 2011 are analyzed, the results show that the estimated deviation of real-time output gap and inflation gap can produce systematic impact on monetary policies and trigger excessive response to the policies and that this systematic influence is more significant before and after international financial crisis, therefore, central bank should reduce response coefficients of real-time output gap and inflation gap in policy rules, i.e. the real-time response coefficients of current monetary policies should be smaller than those theoretically estimated by calculation model. China should be more careful in making monetary policies, on the one hand, daily supervising work on macro-economic activities should be consolidated, on the other hand, a series of monetary policy instruments should be sufficiently used to make “micro-adjustment”, meanwhile, “firewall” for preventing outside impact should be studiously constructed. 　　Key words: output gap; inflation gap; real-time estimate; final estimate; loss function; monetary policy rule; excessive response of monetary policy; systematic deviation; HP filter 　　一、引言 　　近年来，中国的逆周期货币政策成为社会热议的话题之一。为应对2008年底突如其来的国际金融危机冲击，中国政府果断地实施了积极的财政政策和适度宽松