我国商品房空置率对房价波动影响的实证分析-empirical analysis of the influence of commercial housing vacancy rate on housing price fluctuation in china.docx

AbstractAlong with the good development situation of Chinas macro economy, the real estate market is also growing prosperity, peoples living standard has improved，housing conditions improved. 30 years of reform and opening up, Chinas economy has made the development of make a spurt of progress, all kinds of system of market mechanism to be perfected. The real estate market as one of the important part of the economy, in the reform and opening up opportunities, from recovery to high-speed development, and then entered a stage of stable development. After the financial crisis in 2008, the government introduced 4 trillion stimulus plan, the downturn in the economy has gradually come out of the haze, the real estate market has entered a new round of prosperity period. But with the real estate market gradually perfect, the problems are also increasingly prominent: housing prices rose too fast, the housing supply structure is irrational, the market order is chaotic, vacant housing more and more phenomena. In this paper, the housing vacancy rate as the breakthrough point, analysis in the present inflation expectations in severe cases, correlation between the vacancy rate of commercial housing and housing price fluctuation. Chinas current housing vacancy rate is the number of levels, the housing vacancy rate and housing prices fluctuations have what relation and how to regulate housing vacancy rate to curb price fluctuations, the main purpose of this paper is.This paper uses the relevant data of China from 2004 to 2010 35 large and medium-sized city, to analyze the inflation expectations in China under the fluctuation of housing price and housing vacancy rate relationship. Panel data analysis of the OLS and the fixed effect model show that, whether or not to consider the expected, the housing vacancy rate significantly affect the price, and the expected impact on prices than economic fundamentals to the real impact. Housing vacancy rate and housing price volatility is nega