基于遗传神经网络的流域日径流预报模型分析-analysis of daily runoff forecast model of river basin based on genetic neural network.docxVIP

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基于遗传神经网络的流域日径流预报模型分析-analysis of daily runoff forecast model of river basin based on genetic neural network.docx

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基于遗传神经网络的流域日径流预报模型分析-analysis of daily runoff forecast model of river basin based on genetic neural network

AbstractExtractandtimelypredictionofwaterresourcesystem,whichisalargecomplexsystem,notonlycanmakesignificantacademictheory,butalsocanmakeimportantpracticalvalue.Amongpredictionofwaterresourcesystem,streamflowisasubstantialpart.Itsresultscanbewidelyusedinmanyfieldssuchasenvironmentprotecting,floodcontrol,droughtprotecting,andoperationofreservoir.Runningofhydropowerstation,shipmanagementandwaterresourcedistributionshowgreateconomicvalueinoperationofreservoirandhydropowerstation.Sincestreamflowinonebasinisinfluencedbyclimatecharacteristics,physicalgeographycharacteristicandhumanbeingsactivitiesetc.,itscharacteristicisverycomplicated,showingrandomicity,grey,nonlinear,andsoon.Sothepredictionresultsarenotsatisfactorytousandthemethodsbasedonlineartheoriesaredifficulttomakeagreatprogress.Apparently,itsnecessarytoexploremorenewways.Currently,almostallstudyonhydrologicalforecastingisstillinexploringstage.AnewmethodcombingBPwithGAispresentedtoestablishthepredictionsystem.Basedonthestreamflowdataandpredictiondatafromacertainbasin,thedailyrunoffpredictionmodelisestablishedtoverifythefeasibilityandvalidityofthisnewmethod.Underaresearchclewoftheorysummarization,engineeringapplication,methodstudyandapplicationdevelopment,thefocusofthispaperisasfollows:Anartificialneuralnetwork(ANN)modelisdevelopedtoforecastdailyrunoffofacertainbasin.Basedonnumericexperiments,thestructureofANNwhichadaptstothisbasinisfound.ThisANNmodelimprovestheaccuracyofforecasting.ThetrainingsampledataofNeuralNetworkisdividedintotwogroups---lowwaterperiodandabundantwaterperiodtoensureapredictedresultwithhigherprecision.Here，GABPnetworkisusedtopredicttherunoffofthisbasinwiththeappropriatefitnessfunctionandtheresultiscomparedwiththatofBPnetwork,whichfurtherconfirmsthesuperiorityofthisnewmodel.Keywords:Neuralnetwork;Geneticalgorithm;Runoffforecasting;GABP目录摘要...............................................................................................................IAbstract.........................................