技术创新能力的影响因素及作用机制分析——基于出口贸易视角-analysis of influencing factors and mechanism of technological innovation capability - based on the perspective of export trade.docxVIP

摘要随着人民币升值、东南亚国家的崛起以及人力资本优势逐渐被削弱，使一直 拉动中国经济增长的出口受到了重大影响。特别是全球金融危机以来，中国许多 出口企业受到不同程度的影响，同时，技术创新又是当前国家间竞争的核心。因 此，以出口促进创新，以创新带动经济发展是急需研究探讨的问题。本文在研究 技术创新能力的影响因素时，引入出口这一影响因素，主要从出口贸易角度进行 讨论，并加入 RD 投入、外商直接投资等指标，采用 2003 年至 2012 年 10 年的全国 30 个省面板数据，基于扩展的知识生产函数构建计量模型。不同于以往 的研究，本文将时间段分为金融危机前后两段时间，进行固定效应或随机效应回 归分析；再结合出口和进口分别对技术创新的不同影响进行比较分析。得到的结 论主要有：出口贸易能显著并稳健地促进技术创新，但对其中低技术创新影响最 大；2003 至 2007 时间段的出口对技术创新的促进作用大于 2008 至 2012 时间段， 但在后一时间段，出口对高技术创新的促进作用大于对低技术创新的促进作用； 通过进出口比较分析发现，中国出口对技术创新的影响略低于进口。并得到相关 启示：进一步扩大出口规模，优化出口商品结构；加大 RD 投入，增强自主创 新能力；加快金融改革，促进出口企业发展。关键词：技术创新能力；比较分析；出口贸易；固定效应回归IAbstractWith the appreciation of the RMB，the development of southeast Asia countries and Chinas human capital advantage gradually losing its competitiveness，Chinas export has received a serious effect. In China，many export enterprises have suffered great difficulties，especially from the global financial crisis. On the other hand， technological innovation is the core of the competition among countries. So，we should pay serious attention to export trade，by which promoting innovation to develop the economy. Therefore，we put export as an influence factor and add RD input and FDI，using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2012，to study the effect of influence factors of technological innovation ability，in this article. Different from previous studies，according the financial crisis we divide the time intotwo periods and set up fixed or random-effects regression to research and combine the different effects of export and import. Draw the main conclusions：First，export trade has a obviously promoting effect on technological innovation，but mainly promoting low technological innovation. Second，during 2003 to 2007 period，the technologyspillover effect of export is higher than the time from 2008 to 2012. But during 2008 to 2012 period，high technological innovation promoting effect is greater than the low technological innovation. Third，the promoting effect of Chinas export trade is lower than eff