埃及政治动荡的根源和未来——基于政治现代化视角的分析-the origin and future of egyptian political turmoil an analysis based on the perspective of political modernization.docx

摘要埃及现代化从十八世纪晚期至今，已逾二百余年。建立现代化国 家权威的埃及开启政治现代化的时间较早，然而，在历史发展过程中， 并未真正构建出现代的、合理的政治权威，本质上一直维持着威权体 制空有宪政之名，其法律制度未能保护公民的基本权利，民主化改革 也步伐迟缓，政府的合法性缺乏稳定、持久的来源。通过对埃及政治 现代化过程及存在的问题的分析，不但能够清晰地指出埃及政治动荡 的根源所在，也能够给其他发展中国家的政治现代化发展带来积极的 借鉴。本文首先界定了政治现代化理论的相关定义。将政治现代化具体 内容归纳为六项评价指标，涉及民族国家独立、政治权威和现代化、 政府职能的专门化分工、政治权力结构运作法制化、政治参与扩大化、 政治文化世俗化等方面。运用政治现代化的指标分析埃及由传统政治 体系向现代政治体系转变的过程，可以梳理埃及政治现代化的具体表 现，如政权合法性的丧失、腐败蔓延、相对剥夺感的加重和政治参与 扩大化等，得出埃及的政治动荡是由于不平衡政治现代化发展导致的 结论。埃及的未来将面临着长期不稳定。由于埃及的政治制度、政治 体制尚未达到有效的制度化，世俗党派、伊斯兰党派和埃及军队等政 治力量对权力的角逐，民众对政治参与热情高涨等，这些因素都为其 政治动荡持续加温。关键词：埃及政治动荡政治现代化ABSTRACTEgyptian Modernization started from the late Eighteenth Century ， which last more than two hundred years. Egypt opened the political modernization very early, based on the establishment of a modern national authority.However, in the process of historical development, ithas not really build a modern、rational political authority, essentiallymaintained a constitutionalism authoritarian ，with the legal system failed to protect the citizens basic rights, democratic reformed slowly, the source of the legitimacy of government lack of stable. Through theanalysis on the problems of Egyptian political modernization process , it not only point the source of political unrest in Egypt, but also give positive references to other developing countries political modernization development .In this paper it first defines the definition of political modernization theory. The specific content of the political modernization conclude into six evaluation indexes, which relates to national independence and modernization, political authority, political power structure operated legalization of government functions, specialized division of government, expanded political participation, political culture secularization. Analysis of indicators by the political modernization process of transformation to a modern system of Egypt, specific performance can sort out the Egyptian political modernization, Such as the legitimacy of the regime,