埃塞俄比亚对外贸易政策改革对国内生产总值影响分析-analysis of the impact of ethiopias foreign trade policy reform on gdp.docx

摘要通过描述性的和说明性的分析，本研究探讨了埃塞俄比亚外贸改革对国内福 利的影响。描述性方法被用于分析测度埃塞俄比亚贸易政策改革的贸易自由化的 替代性指标；通过进口和/或出口的作用分析，提出了一个分析贸易自由化对国内 福利的综合影响的简单模型；构建了一个实证模型用来估计贸易自由化对埃塞俄 比亚福利的影响，重点在于计量模型的设定以及估计方法；最后对埃塞俄比亚的 福利导向的贸易政策改革的提出建议。说明性方法被用于整合经济学理论和埃塞 俄比亚贸易改革的政策，借助实证影响分析。利用估计方程，本研究探究了整个研究期间内以及其间的单独年份国内福利 的来源。结果显示在整个研究期间内，劳动对国内福利的贡献是最大的，接下来 分别是总资本和总出口的贡献。然而与改革前相比，总出口对国内福利的贡献更 大，并且在改革期内一直增加。此发现清楚地表明贸易政策改革对国内福利具有 正向的影响，因为其与国家的总出口息息相关。模拟分析的结果显示总出口可观测的变化比汇率可观测的变化对于增加国内 福利有更大的影响。然而，总进口变化和汇率变化的综合影响明显要比仅发生其 中一种变化时的影响要大。最后，本研究是以国民收入（国内生产总值 GDP）的观点来处理国内福利的， 因此，需要从非收入方法（如人类发展）的观点出发来进一步研究贸易政策改革 对国内福利的影响。关键词：国内福利，国内生产总值(GDP)，汇率，贸易政策改革ABSTRACTThis research explores the impact of foreign trade policy reforms on national income/GDP in Ethiopia, through descriptive and prescriptive analysis. The descriptive methodology is used to analyze alternative indices of trade liberalization for measuring trade policy reforms in Ethiopia; suggest a simple model for analyzing the aggregate impact of trade liberalization on GDP through the role of exports and/or imports; to construct an empirical model for the purpose of estimating the GDP implications of trade liberalization for Ethiopia with emphasis on econometric specification of the model and technique of estimation; and for drawing implications for GDP oriented trade policy reforms for Ethiopia. The prescriptive methodology is used to integrate the economic theory and policy of trade reforms in Ethiopia through empirical impact analysis.Using the estimated equation, this study finds the sources of GDP for the study period as a whole and for individual years during the study period. The results show that of the three variables the contribution of labour to GDP is the highest followed by the contribution of total capital and total exports for the study period as a whole. In the same way the sources of GDP for individual years during the study period shows that the contribution of labour is the highest followed by the contribution of total capital and total exports. However, a