暴雨洪涝相关敏感传染病的筛选及预估研究——以安徽省为例-screening and prediction of sensitive infectious diseases related to rainstorm and flood a case study of anhui province.docx

山东大学博士学位论文二、材料与方法1081．研究区域1082．数据来源1083．研究设计和统计分析108三、结果．1 101．描述性分析llO2．基于情景的预估分析．113四、讨论1 181右论．120创新点和局限性122参考文献124致谢．134攻读博士学位期间发表的学术论文135万方数据山东大学博士学位论文CoNTENTSAbstract in Chinese ．．1Abstract in English ．．． ．．．． ．．．． ．．．．．．． ．．．． ． ．．． ．．． ．．．．． ．．．． ．6 Symbolic Description．．．．． ．．． ．．．．．．． ．．．．， ．．．．．．．． ．．．． ．．．，．． ．． ． ．．．．．．．12 Preface．．．．．．．．．．．．． ．．．．．． ．．． ．．． ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ．．．． ．．． ． ．．． ．．．． ．．．． ． ．． ．．．．．．．． ．13 Part l：Identifying flood realted infectious diseases from temporal aspect ．．1 81．Introduction．．1 82．Materials and Methods．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ． ．．．．．．．．．．202．1Study area．．：!()2．2 Data collection202．3 Study design and data analysis，．213．Results．253．1Descriptive analysis for spatial and temporal distribution offlood events253．2Descriptive analysis for infectious diseases．．．．．．． ．．．．． ．．．．．．．．．．．3 1 3．3The analysis oflag effects．．493．4Time·-series analysis for infectious diseases．．．．．． ． ．．．． ．．．． ． ． ．．． ．．．．．． ．．58 4．Discussion．61iPart2：Identifying flood related sensitive infectious diseases from spatial aspect．．．．．． ．．70 1．Introduction．．702．Materials and Methods．．．．． ．． ．． ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ．．．．． ．．．．．．．． ．．．．．． ．．．．．．．． ．．．．．．．．712．1Study areas．712．2Data collection．742．3Study design and data analysis．． ．．．．． ．．．．．． ．．．．．．．．．． ．．．．．．．．． ． ．．． ． ．．． ． ．．．．75 3．Results．803．1Descriptive analysis for infectious diseases．．802．Spatial auto-correlation analysis for infectious diseases一873．Spatial regression analysis for ifectious diseases．98 4．Discussion．．1()1Part 3：Projecting disease burden for sensitive infectious diseases in the future ．．1071．Introduction1072．Materials and Methods．1()82．1Study areas．．1082．2Data collection．．108万方数据山东大学博士学位论文2．3Study design and data analysis．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．108 3．Results．． ．．．．1 1()3．1Descriptive analysis1 103．2Vrojection under scenarios一1 134．Discussionl 18Conclusion． ．． ．． ．．．．．．． ．．．．．．． ．． ． ．．． ．． ．． ．．． ．．．． ． ．． ．