基于ERAInterim再分析资料中国极端气温分析.docVIP

基于ERAInterim再分析资料中国极端气温分析 　　摘要：采用中国陆域1989年-2009年3小时0.71°格点的ERAInterim地表2 m气温预报数据，运用累积分布函数与分位数对研究区的极端低温和极端高温进行分析。结果表明：东北、青藏高原及西北地区为极端低温的集聚区，极端低温逐步沿西北-东南方向递增；青藏高原为全国极端高温中的唯一冷中心，西北盆地为最热中心；ERAInterim再分析资料能够较好地反映中国极端低温和极端高温空间分布规律，整体上具有较好的可信度。结合分位数方法定量分析了极端气温的持续时间，为极端气候事件的定量研究提供了方法借鉴。 　　关键词：气候变化；极端气温；再分析资料；ECMWF；累积分布函数；分位数；中国 　　中图分类号：P467文献标识码：A文章编号： 　2014 　　Analysis of Extreme Temperatures in China Based on ERAInterim Reanalysis Data 　　GAO Lu1，2，Karsten Schulz3，CHEN Xingwei1，2，LIN Guangfa1，2 　　（1.College of Geographical Sciences，Fujian Normal University，Fuzhou 350007，China； 　　2.Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters， 　　Fuzhou 350007，China； 　　3.Institute of Water Management，Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering， 　　University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences，Vienna 1190，Austria） 　　Abstract：In this paper，the 3hour and 0.71° grid temperature forecast data of 2 m above ground surface during the period of 1989 to 2009 derived from ERAInterim reanalysis dataset were applied for the analysis of extremely low and high temperatures in China.Based on the cumulative distribution function and quantile function，the results indicated that the Northeast China，Tibetan Plateau，and Northwest China are the main extremely lowtemperature areas，and the extremely low temperature rises along the northwestsoutheast direction.Tibetan Plateau is the sole cold area with the extremely high temperatures，while the basins located in Northwest China are the warmest areas.ERAInterim reanalysis data can represent the spatial distribution of extremely low/hightemperature areas in China.The duration of extreme temperatures can be quantitatively analyzed using the quantile function，which provides reference for the quantitative analysis of extreme climate events. 　　Key words：climate change；extreme temperature；reanalysis data；ECMWF；cumulative distribution function；quantile；China 　　全球气候变化是国际社会长期关注的重大议题，它所带来的负面影响如气温升高、