商品房市场非均衡与货币政策的关系分析-analysis on the relationship between non-equilibrium of commercial housing market and monetary policy.docxVIP

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商品房市场非均衡与货币政策的关系分析-analysis on the relationship between non-equilibrium of commercial housing market and monetary policy.docx

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商品房市场非均衡与货币政策的关系分析-analysis on the relationship between non-equilibrium of commercial housing market and monetary policy

AbstractSince1998whenthewelfarehousingdistributionsystemwasabolished,therealestatemarketinChinahasbeenrapidlydeveloping,whichhasbecomealeadingandfoundationalindustryplayinganimportantroleinthenationaleconomy,beneficialtothepeopleslivelihoodandsocialstability.However,theover-heatingrealestatemarkettriggeredaseriesofproblems,suchasrisinghousingprices,supplystructuredisorder,theshortageofsecurityhousingsystemaswellasthegrowthofspeculationandhousingbubble;therefore,thereexistsseriousunbalanceddevelopmenttrendinthecurrentrealestatemarket.Inordertorestraintheirrationalmarketfluctuation,Chinesegovernmenthastakenaseriesofmacroeconomiccontrol,andthemonetarypolicyisthemostcommonmeasurewiththemostsignificantandrapideffects.Thispaperwillfocusonanalyzingthenon-equilibriumdevelopmentofcommercialhousingmarket,meanwhile,carryoutin-depthandcomprehensivestudytoarguetherelationandeffectmechanismbetweencommercialhousingmarketandmonetarypolicy.Firstly,thispaperexplainstherelatedtheoriesinvolvingintherealestatemarketnon-equilibriumandmonetarypolicy,makesqualitativeanalysisabouttheeffectsofmonetarypolicyonthemarketandanalyzeshowsignificanttherealestatemarketistotheentityeconomydevelopment.Then,thehyperbolicpolymericequationandgreyGM(1,1)modelareestablishedtoanalyzethenon-equilibriumchangessince1998andpredictthemarkettrendafter2012.Theresultsshowthat:between1998and2012,thenon-equilibriumsituationofcommercialhousingmarketkeepsfluctuatingandthedevelopmentofcommercialhousingmarketcanbedividedinto4stagesaccordingtothenon-equilibriumdegreeindex,what’smore,thecurrentmarketisstayinginsupplyshortagefarlessthanthedemand.Theresultsfromthegreypredictionmodelprovethatifthecommercialmarketisdevelopingaccordingtothecurrenttrend,themarketdemandisstillgreaterandmorethansupplywithinthreeyearsafter2012.Finally,thispaperstudiestherelationshipbetweenthemarketnon-equilibriumandmonetarypolicywiththeintegrateduseofVECmodel,impulseresponse,variancedecompositionandGrangercausalitytesttoexploretheeffectonthequantit