水电epc工程项目成本风险研究与评价-research and evaluation on cost risk of hydropower epc project.docxVIP

AbstractIntwelfthfive-yearperiod,especiallyaftereighteenbig,thenewgovernmentleadersputforwardtodriveeconomicgrowth,paymoreattentiontothequalityofeconomicgrowth.Waterandelectricityindustrybythehighqualityofeconomicgrowth,energyconservationandemissionsreductionandenergysecuritysubsistenceofuniqueadvantages,theforceofthedirectdriveinrecentyears,large-scalehydropowerdevelopment.TheEPCgeneralcontractingmodeasoneofthemostpopularontheinternationalatpresentarrangedmodeoftheproject,theapplicationinthehydropowerprojectconstructionisbecomingmoreandmorewidely.HydropowerEPCgeneralcontractorcanontheprojectcostriskinprojectcontractmanagement,notonlyrelatestotheEPCgeneralcontractoronasingleprojectprofitability,alsorelatestothesurvivalanddevelopmentofgeneralcontractingenterprise,itiseachseektomaximizetheinterestsofthegeneralcontractingenterprisecostcontrolthesourceoftherisk,sothecostofhydropowerEPCprojectriskresearchhasbecomethedomesticandforeignexpertsandscholarstoconcern.Firstofall,accordingtothecharacteristicsofhydropowerEPCproject,cost,riskfactors,relationships,morecomplexandafterwardscontrolproperties,combinedwiththescholarsoftheindexsystemoftheexistingresearchresults,combinedwiththecharacteristicsofcostriskfacedbyEPCcontractors,throughavarietyofidentificationmethodsofriskidentification,sortingandinduction,hydropowerEPCprojectcostrisklistisestablished.Secondly,usingthesystemengineeringofadjacencymatrix,accessiblematrixandinterpretationstructuremodel(ISM)methodtothecostofrisksourcesystemstructureanalysis,costriskhierarchysystemisestablished.HydropowerEPCprojectcostriskfactorsdividedfourlayersfromtoptobottominturnasfollows:thefirstlevel:theriseinprice,thedesignideaanddesignmethod,thecontractcompleteness;Thesecondlevel:monetarypolicychange,higherinterestrates,thedesignschemeoftechnicalrequirementsanddeepeningthedegreerequirements,constructionschemeandtechnicalmeasures,meteorologicalandhydrological,geologicalconditions,thepartieshasdivided;Thirdlevel:theconstructionprogress,quality