加权马尔可夫链在银川地区降雨量预测中应用.docVIP

加权马尔可夫链在银川地区降雨量预测中应用 　　摘要:依据1960年-2008年银川地区的年降雨量资料,采用均值-标准差分级法,对其进行状态分级,分为枯水年、偏枯年、平水年、偏丰年和丰水年5个状态。根据马尔可夫链预测方法,验证了该降水序列满足马氏性,并以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权,建立了适用于银川地区年降雨量的加权马尔可夫链预测模型,实例验证结果令人满意。在此基础上结合模糊集理论中的级别特征值,预测了银川地区2009年及2010年的年降雨量。预测结果表明:银川地区2009年为偏枯年,年降雨量为150.45mm;2010年为平水年,年降雨量为177.38mm。最后采用平稳分布估计年降雨量各状态的重现期,结果显示银川地区年降雨量处于平水年和偏枯年的可能性较大。 　　关键词:预测;年降雨量;银川地区;加权马尔可夫链;模糊集理论;平稳分布 　　中图分类号:TV213.9;P332.1文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)01-0078-04 　　 　　Prediction of Precipitation Based on the Weighted Markov Chain in Yinchuan Area 　　WANG Tao,QIAN Hui,LI Pei-yue 　　(School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Changan University, Xian 710054, China) 　　Abstract: 　　Based on the annual precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 in Yinchuan area, taking the means and standard deviation of information series as the classification standard of precipitation, the past 49 years are classified into five states: drought year, weak drought year, normal year, weak water logging year and water logging year. After the verification of the Markov property of precipitation, the weighted Markov chain model used for predicting the state of precipitation in Yinchuan area was established by taking standardized auto-correlation coefficient as weight coefficient, and the prediction results are satisfactory. The concrete value of precipitation in 2009 and 2010 in Yinchuan area is predicted with the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets. The results show that: the state of Yinchuan area is weak drought year and the precipitation is 150.45mm in 2009; the state is normal year and the precipitation is 177.38mm in 2010, and the possibility of normal year and weak drought year is the larger according to the stationary distribution. 　　Key words: prediction; annual precipitation; Yinchuan area; weighted Markov chain; fuzzy set; stationary distribution 　　 　　0 引言?? 　　 　　由于气象条件的多样性、变异性和复杂性,降雨过程存在大量的随机性,能够比较准确地预测降雨量可以为农业等行业的决策提供重要依据。近年来,随着马尔可夫理论的不断完善,利用马尔可夫链模型进行降雨量预测越来越受到众多学者们的关注[1-7]。例如1999年冯耀龙等首次在我国提出加权马尔可夫