全球金融风险加剧下的黄金牛市.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 2 全球金融风险加剧下的黄金牛市 Bullish Gold Market under Increased Global Financial Risks 经琢成 内容概述： 国际政治局势动荡以及原油价格冲击100美元/桶的助推下，COMEX黄金从1月5日的612美元/盎司一路上涨至最高点851美元/盎司。世界经济增长相对强劲，各经济体分化加剧。美国受次级抵押贷款的爆发，导致其经济增长放缓，美元贬值等现象，造成国际游资转向新兴市场。而与此同时，新兴市场将面临新一轮的通货膨胀预期，支持了黄金牛市。全球金融形势下行风险增加，影响到金融信用发展。在未来金融风险或将加剧的情况下，黄金作为除纸币外最好的一种货币形式，其金融属性将被市场越加重视。黄金投资需求日趋旺盛。由于高杠杆产品的投资风险逐渐扩大，基金会提高其在收益稳定性产品上投资组合中的比例，而黄金将成为首选。我们认为黄金牛市将在2008年继续，但不会同2007年8月底至11月那样疯狂上涨，而是振荡上行。 Abstract: Responding to international political turbulences and propelled by the crude oil price approaching US$100/barrel, the price of COMEXT gold reached its highest point at US$851/ounce, after a continuous rise from its January 5th price at US$612/ounce. The world economy grew strenuously, whereas the diversification process among the various local economies sped up. The breakdown of the US subprime mortgage market caused a slowdown of the US economy and a depreciation of the US dollars, redirecting free flowing capital to the emerging markets. At the same time, expectation of the next round of inflations in the emerging markets helped to sustain the bullish market for gold. With the conditions of the global financial market changing for the worse, risks increase, which in turn impedes the development of financial credit. Faced with the prospect of greater financial risks, the market will turn its eye to the financial properties of gold, which stands out as the best form of money besides banknotes, and the investment demand for gold will grow stronger. Due to the growing risks of high-leverage products, funds will enlarge the proportion of steady income products in their portfolios, with gold as the first choice. We expect the bullish market for gold to continue in 2008 but not the same for its frenzy during the period from late August to November of 2007. The price will continue its overall upward movement -- with fluctuations along the way, though. 第一部分 2007年黄金市场行情回顾 资料来源：文华财经 第一阶段：从1月上旬到2月下旬金价呈现震荡上涨行情，一举刺探700美元/盎司大关。年初美元汇率大