基于讨价还价模型跨省水源地保护生态补偿标准研究.docVIP

基于讨价还价模型跨省水源地保护生态补偿标准研究 　　摘要：在梳理现有流域生态补偿标准核算方法的基础上，运用鲁宾斯坦恩斯塔尔讨价还价模型，构建了有限期博弈和无限期博弈的跨省水源地保护生态补偿标准讨价还价博弈模型；并以于桥水库为例，按照不同补偿区域分析了天津市对河北省的生态补偿标准，探讨了出价次序变化和贴现因子变化对补偿标准的影响。结果表明：以于桥水库流域、潘家口-大黑汀水库及引滦入津沿线区域、和主要水源区承德市为补偿对象的生态补偿标准分别在167～1596亿元、030～1149亿元和849～8537亿元之间。影响因子分析显示，在有限期讨价还价博弈中，跨省水源地保护生态补偿标准与贴现因子δ的大小、博弈时期T的长短及谁在最后出价有关；在无限期讨价还价博弈中，跨省水源地保护生态补偿标准与贴现因子δ的大小以及谁最先出价有关。 　　关键词：跨省水源地保护；生态补偿标准；讨价还价博弈；于桥水库 　　中图分类号：X371文献标识码：A文章编号： 　2017 　　Abstract：In this paper，we established a bargaining model of ecocompensation standards for interprovincial water source protection under finite and infinite bargaining conditions by applying the Rubinstein Stahl bargaining model after analyzing the problems in the existing basin ecocompensation calculation methodsThe established model was applied to the Yuqiao Reservoir to analyze the ecocompensation standards of Tianjin Municipality for Hebei Province in terms of compensation regionsWe discussed the impacts of bidding order variation and discount factor variation on the compensation standardsThe results showed that the ecocompensation standards for Yuqiao Reservoir basin，the region around PanjiakouDaheiting reservoirs and along LuanheTianjin water transfer project，and the main water source region Chengde City were respectively between 167 to 1 596 million RMB，30 to 1 149 million RMB，and 849 to 8 537 million RMBThe impact factor analysis demonstrated that，in the finite bargaining，the interprovincial ecocompensation standard was related to the discount factor，the duration of the biding stage T，and the last bidder；in the infinite bargaining，the standard was related to the discount factor and the first bidder 　　Key words：interprovincial water source protection；ecocompensation standard；bargaining；Yuqiao Reservoir 　　科?W合理的补偿标准和长效的财政路径与监督考核机制是流域生态补偿工作是否能够顺利开展并成功的关键。目前，流域生态补偿标准的制定和计算主要依据基于生态系统服务价值、生态保护与建设成本、发展机会成本、水资源价值、水足迹和博弈协商等核算方法。这些各有特点的方法在我国各地得到应用，如黑河[1]、锡林河[2]、闽江[34]、汉江[5]以及南水北调中线[6]、青海湖[7]、昆明松华坝流域[8]、辽河[9]、太湖[10]、滦河[11