S海运公司的运营风险管理方法研究-物流工程专业论文.docxVIP

S 海运公司的运营风险管理方法研究 摘要 干散货运输市场是一个接近于完全竞争型结构市场，在这样一个市场中, 由于受供求、政治、天气、心理等等多方面因素的影响，干散货的运费费率是 无时无刻不在变化的。随着近几年油价屡创新高，运费和燃油价格的巨大波动 性给船公司来带来极大的风险性。 本文首先介绍了干散货市场的相关理论，重点阐述了运费衍生品的四种方 式：波罗的海指数期货、远期运费协议 FFA、运费期权、远期燃油期货合约。 通过对 S 海运公司的运输成本和运价的深入分析，发现国际燃油市场和航运市 场运价的剧烈波动是造成 S 航运公司风险形成的主要原因，提出应该利用运费 衍生品这一工具进行风险规避。结合 S 海运公司的特点，对四种方式进行分析， 最终确定 S 海运公司应该使用 FFA 和远期燃油期货合约者两种方式进行风险管 理。本文指出 S 海运公司在进行运费风险管理时，应以降低利润波动性为目标， 不要进行投机套利。其重点应该是卖出 FFA 合约以此来锁定未来的收入和利 润水平。最后通过在具体的航次交易中模拟 FFA 和远期燃油期货合约的操作， 得出了着两种方式的确能帮助 S 海运公司降低营运风险，锁定利润。 本文意义在于，通过对 S 海运公司运营风险管理问题的分析、研究，为 S 海运公司提出合理的风险管理方法，这对其他同类型航运企业有借鉴意义。 关键词：干散货航运；风险管理；运费衍生品 Research on the Management Method of Operation Risk in S Shipping Company Abstract The dry bulk cargo transport market is close to a completely competitive structure market. In such a market, due to the the influence of various factors such as supply-demand, politics, weather, psychology and so on, dry bulk freight rate is ever-present changing，and along with the oil prices reached record high in recent years,The huge volatility of freight and fuel prices brings the enormous risk for shipping companies. Firstly,this paper introduces the related theories of the dry bulk market related theory, and Expoundsfour ways of the freight derivatives: Baltic index futures, forward freight agreement, freight options, long-dated oil futures contracts .This article throughs to the In-depth analysis of S shipping company’s transportation costs and freight, and found the Main reasons which bring S shipping company risks are the volatility of international oil market and shipping market.So this paper puts forward that it should use freight derivatives tools for risk aversion. Combining S shipping companie’s properties and background, analysising four ways ,Finally it arrives at a conclusion that S shipping company should use FFA and forward fuel futures to contract for the risk management, and points out that when S shipping company is in freight risk management, the goal should be to reduc