X市财政预算执行进度预警预测的研究-工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

中文摘要 中文摘要 万方数据 万方数据 近些年来，伴随我国 GDP 总量逐年增加，我国政府财政收支规模增 长速度也连续多年高于 GDP 增长速度，每年财政支出规模也在不断扩大， 从而带来财政对预算单位的支出安排了预算，但是预算单位的实际预算执 行进度往往偏慢问题，造成财政资金长期闲置在各部门和单位，严重影响 了预算执行的效率性和严肃性，一定程度上造成了财政资金的闲置和浪费。 因此，加快财政预算执行进度，是提高财政资金运转效率，盘活存量资金 的重要手段，也是目前财政预算执行管理部门急需解决的问题。 本文首先具体分析了目前财政预算执行 管理的现状，分析了目前存在 的预算执行进度偏慢的问题及其原因，阐述了加快财政预算执行进度的必 要性。其次，以 X 市 2012 年预算执行数据为基础，运用数据挖掘的方法 通过建立决策树和神经网络模型，开展财政预算执行进度预警预测。另外， 详细阐述了 X 市财政预算执行进度预警预测实施过程，结合 X 市财政预算 执行管理具体实际从业务理解、数据理解、建立制度、统一数据标准、整 合信息系统、提取数据、建立数据集市和 数据仓库、建立数据质量体系、 预算执行进度数据挖掘建立模型、模型评 估、发布结果等方面进行分析。 最后，总结前面所作出的分析预测，并对未来模型改善做出展望，以使财 政预算执行管理更加科学化、精细化。 关键词 ：预算执行 数据挖掘 预警 预测 决策树 Abstract Abstract The growth rate of the government financial revenues and expenditures in China is higher than the growth rate with the total GDP of our country annual increasing in recent years. The scale of financial expenditures is also expanded annually. So it brings the problem of the poor budget implementation. The financial funds remain in the budget unit for a long time that caused the waste of the financial funds. Therefore, speeding up the progress of budget execution is the key method to improve the operation efficiency of financial capital and make the stock of funds useful which is also the problem need to be solved urgently. The thesis firstly analyzed the present situation of the financial budget implementation management and the causes of the poor execution of the budget. It also expounded the necessity of speeding up the progress of budget implementation. Secondly, the thesis used data mining method to warning to the budget units which has the poor budget implementation and forecasted the progress of budget implementation through the establishment of the decision tree and neural network model. Otherwise, the thesis expounded the implementation process of the X city’s warning and forecast. It also analyzed several aspects according to the realities of the X city’s financial budget implementation management, such as business understanding, data unders