房地产开发中博弈问题研究mz_vd6g7.doc

摘要 房地产开发中的博弈问题研究 摘要 伴随着宏观经济的高速发展，我国的房地产开发也迎来了新的高潮。然而，由于相 关体制尚不健全，开发过程中存在的一些问题不断暴露。本文从微观层面入手，对房地 产开发过程中存在的一些问题进行了分析，探讨了房地产开发活动参与者的决策行为及 其成因。 本文对我国房地产开发现状进行了评述，并在此基础上对开发过程各环节参与者之 间的博弈进行了系统的分析，结合房地产开发实践对本文的研究思想进行了验证，取得 了一些有益于理论和实践的研究成果。 对于前期准备阶段，本文首先建立模型，对土地使用权出让过程中开发企业之间竞 价博弈及其串谋进行了研究；其次，根据我国房地产金融市场特点，分析了建设资金筹 集过程中，开发企业与资金供给主体——金融机构的博弈，得出了开发企业能否持续融 资的关键；最后，在分析我国房地产预售市场现状的基础上，建立数学模型探讨我国房 地产预售制度的风险、存在问题及解决方法，分析出了对预售资金监管的必要性。 对于开发建设阶段，本文从招投标机制设计入手，分析了最优招标机制，并对工程 担保制度的辅助作用进行了理论论证；针对招投标阶段可能存在代理人的情况，研究了 委托代理关系下，对代理人行为的最优监督机制；在“委托人——监督人——建设代理 人”框架下，对建设实施过程中代理人机会主义行为下的“串谋”及其防范机制进行了 探讨，提出了相应得对策建议。 对于房地产经营阶段，从房地产交易现实出发，对开发企业与代理企业、开发企业 与消费者的博弈进行分析，提出规范房地产经营过程中参与各方行为措施。 关键词：房地产开发，博弈，委托代理，均衡 I Abstract STUDY ON SOME GAMES IN THE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT ABSTRACT Along with the rapid development of macroeconomic, Chinas real estate development has ushered in a new high tide. However, the relevant institutions is not sound, in the process of developing a number of problems constantly exposed. From microcosmic aspects，a number of problems are analyzed, the decision-making behavior of participants in the real estate development are studied. In this paper, the status quo of Chinas real estate development are reviewed, and base on this , the article carry out a systematic analysis of games among participants, combining real estate development practice ,the study thinking of the test is proved, and research results achieved benefit to the theory and practice. The early preparation stage, the article firstly establish models of competitive game and conspiracy between enterprises; Secondly, According to the characteristics of Chinas real estate finance market, enterprises and financial institutions Game is analyzed, the result of the model indicate the key to the continued financing; Finally, in the analysis of the status quo of the real estate presale market, the paper establish a mathematical model which prove the need for supervision of the pre-sale funds. For the development and const