水文不确定性影响水库供水风险之评估.PDF

來歷暴量 量泥 降 了 切 力 不 不 流量流泥量 立不量 立不 不 來行量 不利羅降流 力論 理理參 不 不 Abstract The objective of this proj ect is to establish the relationship between uncertainty in hydrology and the risk of Shihmen reservoir water supply system. Firstly, we examine the influence of different uncertainty factors using multivariate data analysis methods. Secondly, first order analysis of uncertainty is used to determine the uncertainty in silt yield. Thirdly, the risk of the reservoir water supply system is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation method. Finally, the corresponding discussions are presented and the conclusions are drawn. The results can serve as references for evaluating the risk of Shihmen reservoir water supply system. KEY WORDS: Shihmen reservoir, uncertainty in hydrology, uncertainty analysis, risk analysis. I 錄 I Abstract I 錄II 錄 IV 錄V 1. 1 2. 1 3. 2 4. 3 4.1. 料 3 4.2. 不 立 3 4.2.1. 3 4.2.2. 4 4.3.降泥量不 4 4.4. 不 5 4.4.1. 降流 5 4.4.2. 降率 6 4.4.3. 羅 7 4.4.4. 立不 8 4.5.