短期风电功率预测及其对含风机的微电网经济调度的影响-电力电子与电力传动专业论文.docxVIP

Short-term Wind Power Prediction and Its Impact on Economic Dispatching of A Microgrid ABSTRACT The microgrid technology is the development direction of the electric power industry in the future. Clean and renewable energy including wind energy is the important energy source for the microgrid. However the randomness, intermittency and uncontrollability of wind energy bring about great challenges on the energy scheduling for a microgrid system. The key method to reduce the unfavorable influence for a microgrid with wind turbines due to the fluctuation of wind energy lies in the fast and accurate prediction of short-term wind power. The fast and accurate prediction target requires a full comparison of the characteristics of various methods during selecting a proper short-term wind power prediction method for a microgrid. The following problem is how to improve the prediction accuracy and speed after a prediction method is established. In addition, the effect of prediction accuracy of wind power on energy scheduling of a microgrid is also a problem due to the randomness of wind energy. Aiming at the problems mentioned above existing in a microgrid system with wind turbines, selection of prediction methods, rational configuration of model parameters, the improvement of prediction models and the effect of prediction results of wind power on energy scheduling of a microgrid are researched in this paper. The main research work and innovation results are as follows: The major prediction methods which are artificial neural network and support vector machine methods are selected out according to the consistency of the prediction time scale and the real-time characteristic of microgrid systems. Three representative artificial neural network methods and support vector machine method are chosen for detailed quantitative analysis at the angle of prediction accuracy and speed. How the parameters configuration and sample size scale affect the established method is also studied. D