中印贸易汇率传递效应和影响因素研究.docVIP

中印贸易汇率传递效应和影响因素研究 　　摘要：文章依据2007-2016年中印贸易数据，基于向量自回归Wald-Granger外生性检验、VECM模型引入供求、政策、竞争国价格、边际成本分析汇率传递效应，并对进出口双边汇率与多边汇率的贸易传递效应进行对照研究。结果表明：多边汇率下进出口历史价格对当期价格影响长期达到80%以上，基于多边汇率参考历史价格对预测贸易价格非常有价值；双边与多边汇率传递效应均为不完全传递，我国进口商依宏观形势选择合作地厂商使得进口传递效应小于出口；多边汇率对出口价格的传递率更高，印度进口商对中国总体贸易形势变动更敏感，期望减少因汇率变动导致的进口成本损失；我国为价格主动者，印度为价格追随者，但中国打开印度市场策略较为激进。 　　Abstract： According to the 2007-2016 trade data between China and India， based on the vector autoregressive Wald-Granger exogenously tested and the VECM model， this paper introduces the effect of exchange rate transfer on the basis of supply and demand， policy， price of competing countries and marginal cost， and conducts a comparative study of the trade transfer effects of multilateral exchange rates. The results show that the historical price under the multilateral exchange rate has long been over 80% of the current price. It is very valuable for predicting the trade price based on the multilateral exchange rate using the historical price. The bilateral and multilateral exchange rate transfer effects are incompletely transmitted. The macroeconomic situation has been chosen to make the import transfer effect smaller than that of exports； the transfer rate of multilateral exchange rates to export prices is higher； the importers in India are more sensitive to the changes in the overall trade situation in China and expect to reduce the loss of import costs caused by exchange rate changes； China is the price activist and India is the price follower， but the strategy of opening up the Indian market is rather radical. 　　?P键词：中印贸易；汇率传递；多边汇率；影响因素；外生性检验 　　Key words： Sino-Indian Trade；exchange rate transmission；multilateral exchange rate；influencing factors；exogenous test 　　中图分类号：F75 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2018）16-0001-06 　　0 引言及文献回顾 　　作为世界人口最多的两大文明古国和新兴市场国家，中印贸易合作对世界经济的影响巨大。2016年中印双边贸易超越印美，中国成为印度第一大贸易伙伴和第一大进口来源地（印度驻中国大使馆，2016），但两国贸易严重不平衡，中印贸易逆差激增500亿元，在边境争端与反倾销战的2017年，中印贸易往来企业会受到多大影响？应采取怎样的应对措施？在“一带一路”战略“印度困局”（李晓，2015）的影响下如何推进中印贸易互赢合作？研究两国贸易的影