农业保险和粮食产量增长关系研究.docVIP

农业保险和粮食产量增长关系研究 　　摘要：使用2004―2012年中国31个省（市）的面板数据，实证分析了中国农业保险与粮食产量之间的关系。结果表明，从全国来看，农业保险对粮食产量在1%显著水平有促进作用，但是粮食产量对农业保险的弹性系数仅为0.010 2；从三大区域来看，东部和西部地区农业保险对粮食产量的增长有显著的正向作用，弹性系数分别为0.015 2和0.010 6，中部地区农业保险对粮食产量增加影响不显著；从粮食产区上看，非粮食主产区农业保险对粮食产量的增长有着显著的正向影响，弹性系数为0.016 4，粮食主产区农业保险对粮食产量增长无显著影响。因此，应有针对性地加大农业保险支持力度、合理调整农业保险结构，切实发挥农业保险对粮食生产的促进作用。 　　关键词：农业保险；粮食产量；弹性系数；区域差异 　　中图分类号：F840.66 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2015）16-4077-06 　　DIO：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.16.064 　　Research on Relationship between Agricultural Insurance and Grain Production Increase 　　――An Empirical Analysis of the Panel Data from 31 Provinces of China 　　NIE Wen-guang，HUANG Qi 　　（Hubei Rural Development Research Center， College of Economics and Management of Huazhong Agricultural University， 　　Wuhan 430070， China） 　　Abstract： Using the 2004-2012 panel data of 31 provinces（municipalities） of China， the relationship between Chinese agricultural insurance and grain production was analyzed from enpirical perspective. The results showed that， from the whole country， the agricultural insurance have positive effect on grain production at 1% significant level， but the elasticity coefficient of grain production to agricultural insurance was only 0.010 2； from three regions， in eastern and western regions the agricultural insurance have notable positive effect on grain production increase， the elasticity coefficients were 0.015 2 and 0.010 6 respectively， and in central region the effect of agricultural insurance on grain production increase was insignificant； from the grain production regions，in non-major grain production regions the agricultural insurance have notable positive effcet on grain production increase， the elasticity coifficient was 0.016 4， and in major grain production regions the agricultural insurance have insignificant effcet on grain production increase. Therefore， it′s necessary to strengthen support for the agricultural insurance， to adjust structure of the agricultural insurance reaso